In 429 infantry recruits followed through 14 weeks of basic training, stress fractures of the inner shin were more common when hopping on the leg hurt as well as the shin being painful and tender. The stress fractures found had tenderness along 10 cm of bone or less, and how much the shin hurt did not predict which recruits had one.
Milgrom C, Zloczower E, Fleischmann C, et al. "Medial tibial stress fracture diagnosis and treatment guidelines." J Sci Med Sport 2021; 24(6): 526-530.
In 80 teenage athletes with more than a week of shin pain, each checked against an MRI on the same day, no single clinical test or combination was good at both picking up bone stress injuries of the shin and correctly clearing shins without one. Pain on a single-leg hop picked up the most, but it also hurt in many shins without an injury. When the tests were negative, a more severe bone stress injury was unlikely, and the authors concluded that the examination alone cannot be relied on to judge how severe one is.
Nussbaum ED, Gatt CJ Jr, Bjornarra J, Yang C. "Evaluating the Clinical Tests for Adolescent Tibial Bone Stress Injuries." Sports Health 2021; 13(5): 502-510.
A review of imaging studies in people with suspected stress fractures of the leg and foot found MRI the most accurate scan. Plain X-rays often missed stress fractures when people were first seen, particularly early on, and in some cases did not show an existing stress fracture at any point.
Wright AA, Hegedus EJ, Lenchik L, et al. "Diagnostic Accuracy of Various Imaging Modalities for Suspected Lower Extremity Stress Fractures: A Systematic Review With Evidence-Based Recommendations for Clinical Practice." Am J Sports Med 2016; 44(1): 255-263.
Most stress fractures in athletes are diagnosed mainly from the history and examination and recover well with relative rest and a gradual return to activity. A smaller group at higher-risk sites, including the side of the femoral neck that is pulled apart under load (the tension side) and the front of the shin, carries a greater risk of the crack spreading, slow healing or not healing. These need imaging more often, a period without weight on the leg and a slower return, and some may need surgery.
McInnis KC, Ramey LN. "High-Risk Stress Fractures: Diagnosis and Management." PM R 2016; 8(3 Suppl): S113-S124.
In 239 female college athletes from 16 sports, those at moderate or high risk on a published female athlete triad risk score (which brings together energy availability, periods and bone health) were more likely to go on to a bone stress injury. Irregular or absent periods and a previous stress fracture or stress reaction each predicted a later bone stress injury in their own right, and cross-country runners had most of the injuries.
Tenforde AS, Carlson JL, Chang A, et al. "Association of the Female Athlete Triad Risk Assessment Stratification to the Development of Bone Stress Injuries in Collegiate Athletes." Am J Sports Med 2017; 45(2): 302-310.
In 14 runners with 18 painful shins, scanned within 10 days, magnetic resonance imaging showed a range of grades, from swelling of the bone lining, to changes inside the bone, to a stress fracture. Each leg was scanned once, so the study shows grades of injury rather than one leg moving from one to the next. Pain with ordinary walking, one tender spot on the shin and pain when the bone was tapped went with the more severe injuries.
Fredericson M, Bergman AG, Hoffman KL, Dillingham MS. "Tibial stress reaction in runners. Correlation of clinical symptoms and scintigraphy with a new magnetic resonance imaging grading system." Am J Sports Med 1995; 23(4): 472-481.
A clinical summary describes shin splints (medial tibial stress syndrome) as exercise-related pain along the inner edge of the shin that usually starts as mild discomfort with activity and can become more persistent if training carries on unchanged.
Larson A, McClure CJ, May T, Oh R. "Medial Tibial Stress Syndrome." StatPearls. Treasure Island (FL): StatPearls Publishing; 2025.
A review of 50 studies on returning to running after a stress injury of the shin bone grouped the advice into five checks before running starts: the bone no longer tender, pain-free walking, healing confirmed on imaging for high-risk injuries, strength, function and loading tests, and the factors that contributed. Most of the advice rests on low-level evidence, so it guides the decision rather than setting fixed rules.
George ERM, Sheerin KR, Reid D. "Criteria and Guidelines for Returning to Running Following a Tibial Bone Stress Injury: A Scoping Review." Sports Med 2024; 54(9): 2247-2265.